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Articles
S&P 500 - update
By David Morrison | 27/03/2018 13:47
As can be seen in the daily chart of the S&P 500 below, trading conditions for the US’s main stock index have changed dramatically over the last two months.
Along with the Dow Industrials, NASDAQ and broader-based Russell 2000, the S&P 500 has advanced in a steady upward trend since Donald Trump’s election victory in November 2016. In fact, there’s been little in the way of a serious pull-back since the nadir of the financial crisis was hit back in March 2009. There was a wobble in 2011 as the European crisis built and then ebbed, and then the two Chinese devaluation-triggered sell-offs in August 2015 and early 2016. Aside from these, no appreciable pull-backs. Over the same period, volatility declined steadily leading to increased investor confidence and ever-greater leveraged risk-taking. All this was driven by coordinated central bank stimulus and their zero (or even negative) interest rate policies. This monetary largesse was unprecedented. It also appeared to defy economic logic as inflation (at least by conventional measures) remained subdued.
This situation appeared to change at the end of January this year after US wage growth unexpectedly spiked higher triggering a surge in volatility. Bond yields shot up leading to calls that the great 35-year bull market in bonds was finally over. Investors were warned to prepare for higher borrowing costs – not just in the US but across the Euro zone and in Japan as well. Global equities tanked.
But there was a sudden bounce-back as the immediate effects of the volatility shock subsided and a fresh update on Average Hourly Earnings suggested that January’s reported jump in wages was an outlier. Nevertheless, there are still plenty of factors which still have the power to unsettle investors and help turn sentiment negative. To start with, the outlook for inflation is unclear. It could continue to rise back towards the Fed’s 2% target although some analysts warn that it may have already peaked. This goes some way to explaining why the yield on the US 10-year Treasury remains rangebound – comfortably below the 3% “danger level” but still above 2.8%. Meanwhile, stock market volatility remains elevated. Not by historical standards, but when compared to levels seen over the last few years. This suggests that some normality is returning to markets, no doubt in response to the Fed’s recent rate hikes and as it begins to reduce its balance sheet, putting downward pressure on bond prices. Then there’s Trump’s introduction of trade tariffs and the fears of full-blown trade wars. These worries subsided over the weekend following emollient comments from US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and on reports that US and Chinese officials were working towards some form of trade compromise. This was the catalyst for the sharp bounce in equities yesterday and the follow-on rally this morning. However, there’s still the matter of the turnover of staff at the White House and last week’s appointment of John Bolton as National Security Advisor. Mr Bolton takes a hard-line stance on Russia and Iran and this has raised concerns of increased geopolitical tensions at a time when Russia is already facing global opprobrium. Rounding things off we have Facebook’s data scandal and the related sell-off in FAANG stocks to consider. Again, these tech leaders have recovered lost ground suggesting that we may have seen the worst of the selling. But on the other hand, it may be too early to sound the “all-clear”.
Yesterday the Dow recorded its best one-day move since August 2015. Meanwhile the S&P 500 bounced back above its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and is now closing in on the 100-day EMA, around 2,680. So, what now? Well the next two weeks could prove crucial in setting up markets for their next big move. Investors will be keeping a close eye on technical levels to see if the S&P can get back above the 100-day EMA and push up back towards 2,785 – a level that has capped the index’s advance twice over the last six weeks. On the other hand, stock market bears will be looking for a failure or false break-out at the 100-day EMA followed by a retest of the 200 EMA around 2,600. A break below here opens up the possibility of a retest of the February lows around 2,530. Whichever way the market goes now, it appears that the stock market volatility genie is out of its bottle. That would suggest a more challenging investing environment, but one much better suited to traders than we’ve seen over the last few years.
Any information, analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on this page is for information purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk and GKFX accepts no responsibility for any adverse trading decisions. You should seek independent advice if you do not understand the associated risks.
Author's Other Opinion & Analysis
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The week ahead
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Growth and inflation data
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S&P breaks winning streak
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Lower US open in prospect
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Gold isn’t the only precious metal to shine
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Strong US Payrolls and Manufacturing
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Investors confused after solid data
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Non-Farm Payrolls
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Another blow-out number
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Non-Farm Payroll look-ahead
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Data dump
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All eyes on the Fed
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First FOMC meeting of 2019
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S&P rangebound
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Hovering within an important area
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Federal Reserve, Earnings and Non-Farm Payrolls
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Busy week ahead
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Crude oil rangebound
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Venezuela in focus
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Draghi warns on growth
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Downside risks
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Equities bounce back
By David Morrison | 23/01/2019 15:57
US leads recovery
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Chinese growth slows
By David Morrison | 21/01/2019 15:27
Volumes light on US holiday
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Global indices storm higher
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S&P 500 cracks through resistance
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Netflix reports after the bell
By David Morrison | 17/01/2019 15:43
Equity rally continues
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UK Government faces confidence vote
By David Morrison | 16/01/2019 15:56
Sterling steady
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Corporate earnings in focus
By David Morrison | 15/01/2019 16:05
US banks disappoint
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Dollar spikes higher
By David Morrison | 11/01/2019 15:52
EURUSD falls back below 1.1500
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EURUSD slips after strong gains
By David Morrison | 10/01/2019 16:08
Dollar in focus ahead of Powell speech
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US/China to release trade statement
By David Morrison | 09/01/2019 16:09
High hopes for agreement
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Market Update
By David Morrison | 08/01/2019 16:02
US/China trade talks extended
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Powell responds to market volatility
By David Morrison | 07/01/2019 15:49
Fed Chair turns dovish
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China, Payrolls, Powell trigger equity rally
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Indices surge ahead of weekend
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Apple triggers further selling
By David Morrison | 03/01/2019 15:36
Turmoil in FX overnight
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Dollar strong as 2019 gets underway
By David Morrison | 02/01/2019 15:42
Gold also in demand
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Fed meeting in focus
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Hike or a pause?
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Crude oil sell-off continues
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WTI breaks below $50
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Updated chart of S&P 500
By David Morrison | 17/12/2018 15:55
Friday’s sell-off extended
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May vote and ECB in focus
By David Morrison | 12/12/2018 15:09
UK Prime Minister faces vote of ‘no confidence’
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US/China tariff news spurs equity rally
By David Morrison | 11/12/2018 15:40
Global indices reverse sharply
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UK government delays Brexit vote
By David Morrison | 10/12/2018 15:54
PM May ducks vote
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Crude prices under pressure
By David Morrison | 04/12/2018 16:09
OPEC meeting looms
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Stock indices gap higher
By David Morrison | 03/12/2018 15:34
Central bankers and payroll data
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Markets jittery as G20 convenes
By David Morrison | 30/11/2018 15:39
US and China delegations to talk on trade
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Powell speech sends equities soaring
By David Morrison | 29/11/2018 16:08
Fed chief interpreted as dovish
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Trump sounds off
By David Morrison | 28/11/2018 15:46
Fed Chairman to speak
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Trump’s trade comments
By David Morrison | 27/11/2018 16:11
Tension builds ahead of G20
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Equities bounce back
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Italy backing down?
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Weakness into the weekend
By David Morrison | 23/11/2018 14:19
Poor European data
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Thanksgiving drift
By David Morrison | 22/11/2018 16:00
Equities slip in quiet holiday trade
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US indices give back early gains
By David Morrison | 22/11/2018 09:12
Pre-holiday bounce evaporates
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Global stock indices recover
By David Morrison | 21/11/2018 15:38
Pre-holiday bounce
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Equity sell-off accelerates
By David Morrison | 20/11/2018 16:02
Retail follows tech down
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US and China disagree
By David Morrison | 19/11/2018 15:37
Problems ahead?
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Is sentiment souring?
By David Morrison | 16/11/2018 15:36
Looking for reasons to buy equities
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The dollar, the euro and sterling
By David Morrison | 15/11/2018 15:39
Sterling plunges on Brexit May-hem
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Crude oil bounces
By David Morrison | 14/11/2018 15:35
Output cuts being considered
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Crude oil slumps
By David Morrison | 13/11/2018 16:02
Slide continues
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An update on the S&P
By David Morrison | 12/11/2018 15:38
Bulls versus bears
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S&P chart and the week ahead
By David Morrison | 09/11/2018 15:24
Watch tonight’s close
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A look at the EURUSD
By David Morrison | 08/11/2018 15:49
Charts conflicted?
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Fed meeting in focus
By David Morrison | 07/11/2018 15:53
US dollar slips after mid-terms
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Markets quiet ahead of US election
By David Morrison | 06/11/2018 15:16
Mid-terms loom
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NFPs and the week ahead
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Blow-out jobs report
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Non-Farm Payroll look-ahead
By David Morrison | 01/11/2018 15:38
Wage growth in focus
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Update on the S&P 500
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Index whipsaws higher
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Rally runs out of steam
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Traders dump tech stocks
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Global stock indices bounce
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Traders ‘buy the dip’
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EURUSD under pressure
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Breaks below 1.1400
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Equity sell-off gathers pace
By David Morrison | 23/10/2018 14:54
US no longer immune
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Big week for earnings
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Investors hoping for boost
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The week ahead
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Earnings, the ECB and US GDP
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Chinese yuan falls again
By David Morrison | 18/10/2018 15:08
USDCNY highest since Jan 2017
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The week ahead
By David Morrison | 16/10/2018 14:19
What’s in store for the rest of the week
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Gold breaks above $1,200
By David Morrison | 15/10/2018 15:00
Regaining ‘safe-haven’ status?
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Buy the dip?
By David Morrison | 12/10/2018 15:10
Stocks rebound into weekend
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Euro feeling the heat
By David Morrison | 09/10/2018 14:30
Single currency busts below support
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S&P 500 tests support
By David Morrison | 08/10/2018 15:02
Investors remain cautious
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Investors getting nervous
By David Morrison | 05/10/2018 14:38
US Treasuries slump
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Italy tempers deficit plan
By David Morrison | 03/10/2018 14:53
The euro rallied today, along with European stock indices
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EURUSD testing support
By David Morrison | 02/10/2018 14:20
Single currency under pressure
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Goodbye NAFTA, hello USMCA!
By David Morrison | 01/10/2018 14:30
Canada joins US/Mexican trade deal
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Central bank meetings in focus
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ECB and BoE meet on Thursday
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German DAX continues to struggle
By David Morrison | 11/09/2018 15:09
Another support level broken
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Market Round-up
By David Morrison | 24/08/2018 13:44
Longest-ever US bull market
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Longest ever US bull market?
By David Morrison | 22/08/2018 15:01
US equities remain in favour
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Focus on Jackson Hole
By David Morrison | 21/08/2018 14:47
Fed Chair speaks on Friday
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S&P 500 backs away from record highs
By David Morrison | 16/08/2018 15:04
US equities not immune from emerging market contagion
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The 'never-ending' slide in gold
By David Morrison | 14/08/2018 14:59
Gold breaks below $1,200
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S&P 500 closes in on record high
By David Morrison | 08/08/2018 15:11
US equities continue to strengthen
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EURUSD bounces off 1.1500
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EURUSD retests support
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Weekly Market Wrap
By David Morrison | 03/08/2018 14:17
The second quarter earnings season is beginning to wind down
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Non-Farm Payroll look-ahead
By David Morrison | 02/08/2018 15:11
Payrolls expected to grow by 190,000
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Bank of England rate decision
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Rate hike expected
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Fed meeting look-ahead
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Fed expected to keep rates unchanged
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Weekly Market Wrap
By David Morrison | 27/07/2018 13:37
This article looks ahead to next week’s earnings, central bank meetings and data releases
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A pause in gold’s decline
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Overall trend still negative
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S&P 500 holding above 2,800
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Retest of highs in prospect?
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Crude steadies after slump
By David Morrison | 12/07/2018 14:00
Trade fears trigger selling cascade
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Gold threatens to break December lows
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Gold under pressure
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US S&P 500 retests resistance
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Investors shrug off tariff concerns
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Weekly look-ahead
By David Morrison | 06/07/2018 14:24
Weekly Market Wrap
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FOMC minutes and Non-Farm Payroll look-ahead
By David Morrison | 05/07/2018 13:07
US employment update this Friday
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Crude pulls back from multi-year highs
By David Morrison | 04/07/2018 15:06
Saudi Arabia prepared to raise output
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Investors relaxed over impending tariffs
By David Morrison | 03/07/2018 14:19
Dollar slips and stock indices rally
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S&P 500 retests support
By David Morrison | 02/07/2018 15:22
Equity markets under pressure
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No respite for Sterling
By David Morrison | 28/06/2018 15:32
Pound under pressure
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EU Summit and the single currency
By David Morrison | 27/06/2018 15:23
Euro under pressure
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Investors react to fears of trade tariff escalation
By David Morrison | 26/06/2018 15:32
Monday saw significant selling across global equity markets
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Weekly Market Wrap
By David Morrison | 15/06/2018 15:22
There was a broad-based sell-off across risk assets on Friday
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Traders turn to the ECB
By David Morrison | 14/06/2018 07:31
Expectations have risen that the ECB will talk of ending QE
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Federal Reserve set to raise rates
By David Morrison | 12/06/2018 14:55
The Fed concludes its two-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday
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Weekly market wrap
By David Morrison | 08/06/2018 15:22
Next week sees central bank meetings for the US, Euro zone and Japan
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WTI breaks below trend-line
By David Morrison | 05/06/2018 15:30
Both Brent and WTI crude have sold off sharply
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Weekly market wrap
By David Morrison | 01/06/2018 14:29
Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll number was much stronger than expected
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Non-Farm Payroll look-ahead
By David Morrison | 31/05/2018 15:42
This Friday sees the release of US Non-Farm Payrolls for May
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Weekly look-ahead
By David Morrison | 25/05/2018 15:10
It’s a holiday-shortened week with Bank Holidays on Monday for both the UK and US
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EURUSD update
By David Morrison | 23/05/2018 15:20
The EURUSD currency pair took another lurch lower today
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Weekly Market Wrap
By David Morrison | 18/05/2018 15:26
Traders are keeping a close eye on oil prices, the dollar and US Treasury bonds
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Gold under pressure
By David Morrison | 16/05/2018 13:58
Gold had shown remarkable resilience over the past few weeks
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Weekly Market Wrap
By David Morrison | 11/05/2018 15:04
Equities rallied last week
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Bank of England rate decision
By David Morrison | 09/05/2018 14:59
A look at Thursday's MPC rate decision
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Weekly Market Wrap
By David Morrison | 04/05/2018 15:21
Friday brought the release of the latest US Non-Farm Payroll report
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Dollar break-out
By David Morrison | 02/05/2018 08:12
Early last week the dollar broke out of several trading ranges
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Weekly market wrap
By David Morrison | 27/04/2018 15:13
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note broke above the significant 3.0% level
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Crude weaker, but still near highs
By David Morrison | 25/04/2018 15:32
Oil fell yesterday following comments from French President Emmanuel Macron
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US dollar breaks out
By David Morrison | 24/04/2018 15:55
Yesterday evening the Dollar Index broke above 90.00
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Weekly market wrap
By David Morrison | 20/04/2018 15:06
Earnings continue to get a boost on...
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Another look at the EURUSD
By David Morrison | 18/04/2018 15:06
Trump accuses China and Russia of “playing the currency devaluation game”.
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S&P 500 update
By David Morrison | 17/04/2018 15:53
The US stock market steadied last week
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Weekly market wrap
By David Morrison | 13/04/2018 15:19
The first quarter earnings season got underway last week
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EURUSD update
By David Morrison | 11/04/2018 08:14
Still range-bound near highs
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Weekly market wrap
By David Morrison | 06/04/2018 15:29
US payrolls disappoint
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Non-Farm Payroll look-ahead
By David Morrison | 05/04/2018 13:48
Tomorrow sees the latest update for arguably the most important, and potentially market-moving, global data release – US Non-Farm Payrolls.
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S&P 500 update
By David Morrison | 04/04/2018 14:31
S&P 500 breaks below 200-day moving average
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Weekly market wrap
By David Morrison | 29/03/2018 13:38
This Easter holiday couldn’t really come at a worse time
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Weekly look-ahead
By David Morrison | 23/03/2018 16:59
Holiday-shortened week
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NASDAQ leads sell-off
By David Morrison | 22/03/2018 15:53
Markets lead lower by tech sell-off
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Fed meeting in focus
By David Morrison | 21/03/2018 10:50
Investors on edge ahead of Fed decision
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Weekly Outlook
By David Morrison | 16/03/2018 15:41
Fed meeting in focus
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S&P 500 - the technical picture
By David Morrison | 14/03/2018 16:34
This week has seen the US majors pull back from their best levels
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Weekly look-ahead
By David Morrison | 09/03/2018 16:16
The headline payroll number smashed above the high end of expectations
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Non-Farm Payroll look-ahead
By David Morrison | 08/03/2018 14:30
All eyes on wage growth
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ECB and BOJ meetings in focus
By David Morrison | 07/03/2018 17:24
Investors experienced a shock last month
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Weekly Outlook
By David Morrison | 05/03/2018 10:15
This is a big week for financial markets
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Euro bounces, but political uncertainty remains
By David Morrison | 02/03/2018 11:01
The euro rallied sharply overnight
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Weekly look-ahead
By David Morrison | 23/02/2018 16:58
US stock index futures were pushing higher ahead of Friday’s US open.
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FOMC minutes and the German DAX
By David Morrison | 22/02/2018 14:33
Investors were initially wrong-footed by minutes from a Federal Reserve meeting.
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FOMC minutes in focus
By David Morrison | 21/02/2018 11:47
All eyes are on the release of minutes from the Fed’s January FOMC meeting
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Situation remains unresolved
By David Morrison | 20/02/2018 13:09
The stock market correction may have further to go
-
Weekly Outlook
By David Morrison | 16/02/2018 16:02
Global stock indices fought back last week
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Out of the woods? Perhaps not
By David Morrison | 15/02/2018 13:37
Yesterday brought the latest update on US inflation
-
Inflation and the S&P 500
By David Morrison | 12/02/2018 16:30
This article will focus on the S&P 500
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Weekly Outlook
By David Morrison | 09/02/2018 16:35
Friday was a roller-coaster session to round off a tumultuous week.
-
What now?
By David Morrison | 08/02/2018 15:54
The current sell-off in global equities has been a long time coming.
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Traders focus on volatility
By David Morrison | 06/02/2018 16:55
Yesterday the Dow posted its biggest ever one-day loss in points terms
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Rising yields lift troubled dollar
By David Morrison | 05/02/2018 16:17
The US dollar stages a modest recovery.
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Weekly look-ahead
By David Morrison | 02/02/2018 16:12
Equity sell-off resumes while dollar rallies
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Time for a correction?
By David Morrison | 31/01/2018 16:22
Equities retreat as yields push higher
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Crude prices dip
By David Morrison | 29/01/2018 15:57
Oil slides as dollar rallies
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Weekly look-ahead
By David Morrison | 26/01/2018 15:16
What's in store for key markets
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Dollar hits fresh 3-year lows
By David Morrison | 24/01/2018 16:38
US dollar plunges ahead of Trump's Davos speech
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Wall Street hits fresh highs
By David Morrison | 23/01/2018 15:46
The three-day US government shutdown ended on Monday
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Market Round-up
By David Morrison | 22/01/2018 16:53
Monday marked day three of the US government shutdown.
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Weekly look-ahead
By David Morrison | 19/01/2018 16:30
The last couple of weeks have seen a number of significant technical breakouts
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S&P 500 – Weekly Chart
By David Morrison | 18/01/2018 15:24
Putting price action into context
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Crude pulls back from three-year highs
By David Morrison | 17/01/2018 16:32
On Monday WTI and Brent hit their highest levels since early December 2014
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Gold, the dollar, bond yields and inflation
By David Morrison | 16/01/2018 15:00
But in line with conventional wisdom the dollar’s sell-off triggered a sharp rally in gold.
-
Weekly look-ahead
By David Morrison | 12/01/2018 16:50
Earlier in the week the US majors had a slight wobble
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Gold traders eyeing the dollar
By David Morrison | 11/01/2018 15:48
This article considers the recent price action on gold
-
Chinese news rattles markets
By David Morrison | 10/01/2018 15:33
Chinese officials recommend “slowing or halting”
-
Could stocks rally further?
By David Morrison | 08/01/2018 17:00
Most European stock indices ended Monday’s session in positive territory, playing catch-up after Wall Street’s sharp rally last week.
-
Weekly look-ahead
By David Morrison | 05/01/2018 15:55
We rounded off this week with the final Non-Farm Payroll report of 2017. Headline payrolls rose 148,000 which was well below the 190,000 increase expected.
-
Dow smashes through 25,000
By David Morrison | 04/01/2018 16:07
Yesterday the US majors ended at fresh all-time highs and this helped to lift Asian Pacific indices overnight.
-
US indices hit fresh record highs
By David Morrison | 03/01/2018 16:08
US stock indices made another strong upside move yesterday which took both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite up to fresh record highs. The buying has continued throughout today’s session
-
Mixed start to New Year
By David Morrison | 02/01/2018 16:56
The first trading day of 2018 brought a mixed session as far as global stock indices were concerned.
-
New Year round-up
By David Morrison | 29/12/2017 15:22
As 2017 draws to a close, here’s a quick round-up of how a few key markets look going into next year.
-
What's Next for Crude Oil?
By David Morrison | 19/12/2017 14:42
This article will focus on price action in the front month WTI contract rather than Brent. WTI tends to provide better technical signals than Brent – not always, but often enough to give a cleaner overall picture.
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Equities soar on US tax reform hopes
By David Morrison | 18/12/2017 16:10
US and European stock indices soared on Monday as investors priced in an increasing probability that President Trump will deliver on his promise of tax reform before year-end.
-
Weekly Outlook
By David Morrison | 15/12/2017 14:26
Here’s a brief heads-up for the week beginning 18th December
-
Central Bank monetary policy meetings
By David Morrison | 14/12/2017 15:48
Here’s a quick rundown of the highlights from this week’s monetary policy meetings from the European Central Bank, Bank of England and US Federal Reserve
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Look-ahead to the Federal Reserve meeting
By David Morrison | 13/12/2017 08:49
Crucially, this week’s Fed meeting also brings an update to the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections.
-
Cboe launches Bitcoin futures
By David Morrison | 11/12/2017 16:26
Listing Bitcoin futures on mainstream exchanges should ultimately help to boost the digital currency’s legitimacy and lead to more widespread acceptance.
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Non-Farm Payroll look-ahead: 6 things you should know
By David Morrison | 08/12/2017 09:55
So, here’s what to look for: the consensus expectation is for the headline Non-Farm Payrolls to rise 200,000 in November.
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EURUSD – key events to consider
By David Morrison | 06/12/2017 17:07
The dollar got a boost this week on the increased likelihood of an agreement on US tax reform being reached before the year-end.
Market Insight
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