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Articles
EURUSD – key events to consider
By David Morrison | 06/12/2017 17:07
On the first trading day of this year, the EURUSD traded below 1.0350 to hit a 14-year low. The move led a number of commentators to forecast that the pair was on course to trade at parity for the first time since the end of 2002. However, the single currency subsequently put in a solid rally. The euro pushed higher until mid-September when the EURUSD broke above 1.2000 to hit its highest level since early 2015. The dollar then recovered a touch in a move which saw the pair retest support around 1.1600. Then the euro bounced, briefly hitting the 76.4% Fibonacci Retracement of the September-November pull-back around 1.1960. Now the dollar has undergone a mild recovery and the big question is where we go from here. My colleague Ashraf Laidi will be looking at the technical set-up behind some currency pairs in tonight’s webinar and a seminar tomorrow evening. You can get a taster of his thoughts here. We’ll consider some of the fundamental influences on the EURUSD in this commentary.The dollar got a boost this week on the increased likelihood of an agreement on US tax reform being reached before the year-end. Last weekend investors were taken by surprise after the Republican proposals for tax cuts passed through the Senate. On Monday the Republican-controlled House of Representatives voted to go to conference with the Senate to begin formal negotiations.
Tax reform is seen as positive for the dollar. The thinking behind this is partly that the proposed corporation tax cut will help US multinationals to reduce prices, be more competitive overseas and thus boost sales. Also, multinationals will want to take advantage of a tax break on repatriated overseas earnings and convert foreign currency into dollars to send it home. But there’s still a high probability that the tax reform package gets messed up under a barrage of compromises. After all, there are a number of significant differences between the reforms voted on by the House and those passed by the Senate, both in scope and timing. Even if Congress reaches agreement, there could be some negative kick-back if the market decides that unfunded tax cuts (which could cost anything between $3 and $7 trillion over the next 10 years, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget) are too much of a burden on top of record levels of national debt.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve holds a key monetary policy meeting next week. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool there is a 90% probability that the Fed’s FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) will vote to raise rates by 25 basis points. While this has fallen back from the 98% level hit a few weeks ago, it still means that another rate hike next week is effectively nailed on – at least as far as players in the fed funds futures market (which is what the FedWatch Tool is based on) are concerned. It’s fair to say then that a failure of the FOMC to raise rates next Wednesday would be a shock.
But the December meeting also sees an update to the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections. The summary includes the committee’s forecasts for US unemployment, GDP growth, inflation and the Fed funds rate, expressed in the “dot plot”. Back in September the FOMC’s “dot plot” indicated that members anticipate a further three rate rises throughout 2018. This is despite Core PCE (the Fed’s preferred inflation measure) coming in at 1.4% in October when compared to the same period twelve months’ ago. While this was a slight pick-up from the 1.3% reported in August it remains a long way short of the Fed’s 2% inflation target which is a worry for the central bank. Wage growth is tepid despite the US Unemployment Rate hitting its lowest level in 17 years in October. On Friday we get a fresh update on the US employment situation on Friday with the release of Non-Farm Payrolls (more on this in tomorrow’s update).
It will be important to look out for any changes to the “dot plot” together with any change in tone from the FOMC. If committee members row back on their anticipated rate of tightening from September’s meeting, then we can expect this year’s dollar decline to continue.
Any information, analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on this page is for information purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk and GKFX accepts no responsibility for any adverse trading decisions. You should seek independent advice if you do not understand the associated risks.
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Weekly look-ahead
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Crude pulls back from three-year highs
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On Monday WTI and Brent hit their highest levels since early December 2014
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Gold, the dollar, bond yields and inflation
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But in line with conventional wisdom the dollar’s sell-off triggered a sharp rally in gold.
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Weekly look-ahead
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Earlier in the week the US majors had a slight wobble
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Gold traders eyeing the dollar
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Chinese news rattles markets
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Chinese officials recommend “slowing or halting”
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Could stocks rally further?
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Most European stock indices ended Monday’s session in positive territory, playing catch-up after Wall Street’s sharp rally last week.
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Weekly look-ahead
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We rounded off this week with the final Non-Farm Payroll report of 2017. Headline payrolls rose 148,000 which was well below the 190,000 increase expected.
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Dow smashes through 25,000
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Yesterday the US majors ended at fresh all-time highs and this helped to lift Asian Pacific indices overnight.
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US indices hit fresh record highs
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US stock indices made another strong upside move yesterday which took both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite up to fresh record highs. The buying has continued throughout today’s session
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Mixed start to New Year
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The first trading day of 2018 brought a mixed session as far as global stock indices were concerned.
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New Year round-up
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As 2017 draws to a close, here’s a quick round-up of how a few key markets look going into next year.
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What's Next for Crude Oil?
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This article will focus on price action in the front month WTI contract rather than Brent. WTI tends to provide better technical signals than Brent – not always, but often enough to give a cleaner overall picture.
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Equities soar on US tax reform hopes
By David Morrison | 18/12/2017 16:10
US and European stock indices soared on Monday as investors priced in an increasing probability that President Trump will deliver on his promise of tax reform before year-end.
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Weekly Outlook
By David Morrison | 15/12/2017 14:26
Here’s a brief heads-up for the week beginning 18th December
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Central Bank monetary policy meetings
By David Morrison | 14/12/2017 15:48
Here’s a quick rundown of the highlights from this week’s monetary policy meetings from the European Central Bank, Bank of England and US Federal Reserve
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Look-ahead to the Federal Reserve meeting
By David Morrison | 13/12/2017 08:49
Crucially, this week’s Fed meeting also brings an update to the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections.
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Cboe launches Bitcoin futures
By David Morrison | 11/12/2017 16:26
Listing Bitcoin futures on mainstream exchanges should ultimately help to boost the digital currency’s legitimacy and lead to more widespread acceptance.
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Non-Farm Payroll look-ahead: 6 things you should know
By David Morrison | 08/12/2017 09:55
So, here’s what to look for: the consensus expectation is for the headline Non-Farm Payrolls to rise 200,000 in November.
Market Insight
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