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Articles
Weekly look-ahead
By David Morrison | 05/01/2018 15:55
Data-light
There’s relatively little in the way of important data releases due out next week. There’s really nothing until Wednesday when we have UK Manufacturing Production and US Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday sees the release of US Producer Prices and Unemployment Claims while the main event comes on Friday with US CPI and Retail Sales.
Stock market rally to continue?
But the dearth of data doesn’t necessarily mean that markets won’t be moving. Most importantly, investors have to consider if US stock indices can continue to post fresh record highs and if the US dollar will take out its multi-year low versus the euro hit back in September last year. As far as US equities are concerned, it seems that investors have little concern about current high valuations or the potential impact of tighter monetary policy. Instead they prefer to focus on continued earnings growth, Trump’s business-friendly administration and the overall feeling that ultimately central banks will quickly step in to prevent a significant market correction. For now, it appears there’s nothing out there which could possibly upset the current market exuberance. Yet every additional fresh record close-out brings the market closer to an inevitable downside correction. As Hyman Minsky pointed out: “Stability breeds instability.”
EURUSD tests resistance
As for the dollar, next week could prove crucial in terms of where it goes next. The EURUSD tried and failed to take out its September high (just under 1.2100) on four separate occasions this week. If this level of resistance holds, and if the Dollar Index continues to trade above 91.00, then we may begin to see a reversal in the greenback’s fortunes. If this were the case, then we should expect to see pull-backs in both gold and silver. However, if the dollar continues its decline next week, then dollar-denominated assets should all get a boost. Much will depend on US Treasury bond yields which were recovering (and therefore dollar-positive) on Friday afternoon after their post non-farm payroll sell-off.
Non-Farm Payrolls
We rounded off this week with the final Non-Farm Payroll report of 2017. Headline payrolls rose 148,000 which was well below the 190,000 increase expected. There was an upward revision of 24,000 to the prior month’s reading. But this was more than offset by a reduction of 33,000 jobs to October’s release.
The Unemployment Rate came in at 4.1% - unchanged from last month, and remains at its lowest level since December 2000. Meanwhile, Average Hourly Earnings rose 0.3% month-on-month as expected. This was up from November’s +0.2% gain and will be encouraging as far as the Federal Reserve is concerned who are still looking for inflation to pick up towards their 2% target.
Market-wise there was an initial knee-jerk sell-off in the US dollar and a corresponding rally in precious metals. Although these moves were completely unwound by the time the New York stock Exchange opened. There was relatively little reaction from US stock indices which continue to rally as we get further into 2018.
Euro zone inflation
Last Friday also saw the release of Euro zone inflation data. The latest Flash CPI estimate rose 1.4% year-on-year. This was in line with the consensus forecast but down on the prior month’s reading of +1.5%. Meanwhile Core CPI (excluding food and energy) was up 0.9% from the same time last year, unchanged from the previous month but below the consensus expectation of +1.0%. Overall, this should prove a disappointment for the European Central Bank (ECB) which, as with the US Federal Reserve, continues to fail to drive inflation up towards its preferred target.
Any information, analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on this page is for information purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk and GKFX accepts no responsibility for any adverse trading decisions. You should seek independent advice if you do not understand the associated risks.
Author's Other Opinion & Analysis
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US/China tariff news spurs equity rally
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Global indices reverse sharply
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UK government delays Brexit vote
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PM May ducks vote
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Crude prices under pressure
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Central bankers and payroll data
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Markets jittery as G20 convenes
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Powell speech sends equities soaring
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Thanksgiving drift
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Equity sell-off accelerates
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Looking for reasons to buy equities
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The dollar, the euro and sterling
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Sterling plunges on Brexit May-hem
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Crude oil bounces
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Output cuts being considered
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Crude oil slumps
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An update on the S&P
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Buy the dip?
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Goodbye NAFTA, hello USMCA!
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Tomorrow sees the latest update for arguably the most important, and potentially market-moving, global data release – US Non-Farm Payrolls.
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S&P 500 update
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Weekly look-ahead
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Holiday-shortened week
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NASDAQ leads sell-off
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Markets lead lower by tech sell-off
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Investors on edge ahead of Fed decision
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Weekly Outlook
By David Morrison | 16/03/2018 15:41
Fed meeting in focus
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By David Morrison | 14/03/2018 16:34
This week has seen the US majors pull back from their best levels
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Weekly look-ahead
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Non-Farm Payroll look-ahead
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Investors experienced a shock last month
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Weekly Outlook
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This is a big week for financial markets
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Weekly look-ahead
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FOMC minutes and the German DAX
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FOMC minutes in focus
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Situation remains unresolved
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The stock market correction may have further to go
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Weekly Outlook
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Out of the woods? Perhaps not
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Inflation and the S&P 500
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This article will focus on the S&P 500
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Weekly Outlook
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Friday was a roller-coaster session to round off a tumultuous week.
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What now?
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The current sell-off in global equities has been a long time coming.
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Traders focus on volatility
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Weekly look-ahead
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Weekly look-ahead
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Wall Street hits fresh highs
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Market Round-up
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Weekly look-ahead
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The last couple of weeks have seen a number of significant technical breakouts
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S&P 500 – Weekly Chart
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Putting price action into context
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Crude pulls back from three-year highs
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On Monday WTI and Brent hit their highest levels since early December 2014
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Gold, the dollar, bond yields and inflation
By David Morrison | 16/01/2018 15:00
But in line with conventional wisdom the dollar’s sell-off triggered a sharp rally in gold.
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Weekly look-ahead
By David Morrison | 12/01/2018 16:50
Earlier in the week the US majors had a slight wobble
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Gold traders eyeing the dollar
By David Morrison | 11/01/2018 15:48
This article considers the recent price action on gold
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Chinese news rattles markets
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Chinese officials recommend “slowing or halting”
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Could stocks rally further?
By David Morrison | 08/01/2018 17:00
Most European stock indices ended Monday’s session in positive territory, playing catch-up after Wall Street’s sharp rally last week.
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Dow smashes through 25,000
By David Morrison | 04/01/2018 16:07
Yesterday the US majors ended at fresh all-time highs and this helped to lift Asian Pacific indices overnight.
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US indices hit fresh record highs
By David Morrison | 03/01/2018 16:08
US stock indices made another strong upside move yesterday which took both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite up to fresh record highs. The buying has continued throughout today’s session
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Mixed start to New Year
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The first trading day of 2018 brought a mixed session as far as global stock indices were concerned.
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New Year round-up
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As 2017 draws to a close, here’s a quick round-up of how a few key markets look going into next year.
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What's Next for Crude Oil?
By David Morrison | 19/12/2017 14:42
This article will focus on price action in the front month WTI contract rather than Brent. WTI tends to provide better technical signals than Brent – not always, but often enough to give a cleaner overall picture.
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Equities soar on US tax reform hopes
By David Morrison | 18/12/2017 16:10
US and European stock indices soared on Monday as investors priced in an increasing probability that President Trump will deliver on his promise of tax reform before year-end.
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Weekly Outlook
By David Morrison | 15/12/2017 14:26
Here’s a brief heads-up for the week beginning 18th December
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Central Bank monetary policy meetings
By David Morrison | 14/12/2017 15:48
Here’s a quick rundown of the highlights from this week’s monetary policy meetings from the European Central Bank, Bank of England and US Federal Reserve
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Look-ahead to the Federal Reserve meeting
By David Morrison | 13/12/2017 08:49
Crucially, this week’s Fed meeting also brings an update to the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections.
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Cboe launches Bitcoin futures
By David Morrison | 11/12/2017 16:26
Listing Bitcoin futures on mainstream exchanges should ultimately help to boost the digital currency’s legitimacy and lead to more widespread acceptance.
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Non-Farm Payroll look-ahead: 6 things you should know
By David Morrison | 08/12/2017 09:55
So, here’s what to look for: the consensus expectation is for the headline Non-Farm Payrolls to rise 200,000 in November.
-
EURUSD – key events to consider
By David Morrison | 06/12/2017 17:07
The dollar got a boost this week on the increased likelihood of an agreement on US tax reform being reached before the year-end.
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