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Articles
S&P 500 – Weekly Chart
By David Morrison | 18/01/2018 15:24
This article takes a look at a longer-term chart of the S&P500 to see if there’s anything it can tell us about where the index goes from here
Longer-term horizons
When undertaking technical analysis on a market which keeps on posting record highs it’s helpful, or even vital, to pay attention to longer-than-usual time horizons. Often this will be the only way to put current price action into some kind of context. This in turn will help you to make sensible trading decisions.
Notable sell-offs
This becomes apparent when looking at US stock indices, in this instance the S&P 500. Here’s the daily chart going back to October 2015, showing well over two years-worth of price data. We can see three notable occasions when the index sold off. The first (and by far the most significant) was in early 2016. This was when China devalued its currency for a second time in the space of a few months. The previous occasion was back in August 2015 – a move which threw global markets into chaos, sparking an excessive and panicky response from Chinese regulators to stem an equity market slump and the attempts by domestic investors to move funds offshore.
Quick recoveries
Then we had the knee-jerk sell-off which followed the UK referendum on membership of the European Union. As we know, the result proved to be an unexpected victory for the “Leave” campaign and investors were quick to de-risk and cut their exposure to global equities. But prices snapped back quickly and it wasn’t long before the S&P had made back all its losses and began to consolidate at higher levels.
S&P makes records
Then a few months later there was another political shock after Trump clinched the US presidency in November 2016. Once again, risk assets sold off. But this time the bounce-back was positively indecent in its rapidity. Within hours the S&P had made back all its initial losses. Subsequently it embarked on an unbroken rally which takes us to today. When we refer to the rally as “unbroken” we’re talking about an index which has had 14 consecutive positive months on a total return basis; is within days of enjoying the longest streak without a 5% sell-off since records began; has just posted its best new year performance in over 50 years and where volatility continues to hover near all-time record lows.
Trading the chart
But how to trade it? Well, the chart above isn’t particularly helpful as the bull run is without context. So far it’s been enough to put aside any doubts one may have about excessive valuations and the withdrawal of central bank monetary stimulus and just pile in on the long-side. This has worked well for most of the last eight years and every analyst that’s called a top to this market has ended up on the wrong side of this exceptionally powerful bull trend.
Exponential gains
The next chart is a weekly going back ten years, and this helps to add some perspective. It shows us precisely where the S&P500 broke to the upside during its post-2009 rally. We can also get some idea of the recent exponential move higher which has seen the index burst above the resistance line in the Andrews’ Pitchfork study shown below. While it’s absolutely no secret that the S&P is overdue a correction, what this does tell us is that the index looks particularly overbought at current levels. There’s no reason why the index can’t go higher from here, but the probability is that it will need to pull back and consolidate first. Now this is not to suggest that this is a shorting opportunity. Current market sentiment is far too positive for that. But what it does suggest is that now may not be the best time to take out fresh long positions. Certainly, the market can easily go higher from here if investors continue with their bullish exuberance. After all, global economic growth is picking up and Trump’s tax reforms look like they will provide a big boost for US corporations. But nothing goes up in a straight line forever. A bit of patience now may bring a more favourable buying opportunity further down the line.
Any information, analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on this page is for information purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk and GKFX accepts no responsibility for any adverse trading decisions. You should seek independent advice if you do not understand the associated risks.
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NASDAQ leads sell-off
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Weekly Outlook
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Fed meeting in focus
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S&P 500 - the technical picture
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Weekly look-ahead
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Weekly look-ahead
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FOMC minutes and the German DAX
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Situation remains unresolved
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Weekly Outlook
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Out of the woods? Perhaps not
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What now?
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Wall Street hits fresh highs
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Market Round-up
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Weekly look-ahead
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The last couple of weeks have seen a number of significant technical breakouts
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Crude pulls back from three-year highs
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On Monday WTI and Brent hit their highest levels since early December 2014
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Gold, the dollar, bond yields and inflation
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But in line with conventional wisdom the dollar’s sell-off triggered a sharp rally in gold.
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Weekly look-ahead
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Earlier in the week the US majors had a slight wobble
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Gold traders eyeing the dollar
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This article considers the recent price action on gold
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Chinese news rattles markets
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Chinese officials recommend “slowing or halting”
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Could stocks rally further?
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Most European stock indices ended Monday’s session in positive territory, playing catch-up after Wall Street’s sharp rally last week.
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Weekly look-ahead
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We rounded off this week with the final Non-Farm Payroll report of 2017. Headline payrolls rose 148,000 which was well below the 190,000 increase expected.
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Dow smashes through 25,000
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Yesterday the US majors ended at fresh all-time highs and this helped to lift Asian Pacific indices overnight.
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US indices hit fresh record highs
By David Morrison | 03/01/2018 16:08
US stock indices made another strong upside move yesterday which took both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite up to fresh record highs. The buying has continued throughout today’s session
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Mixed start to New Year
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The first trading day of 2018 brought a mixed session as far as global stock indices were concerned.
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New Year round-up
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As 2017 draws to a close, here’s a quick round-up of how a few key markets look going into next year.
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What's Next for Crude Oil?
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This article will focus on price action in the front month WTI contract rather than Brent. WTI tends to provide better technical signals than Brent – not always, but often enough to give a cleaner overall picture.
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Equities soar on US tax reform hopes
By David Morrison | 18/12/2017 16:10
US and European stock indices soared on Monday as investors priced in an increasing probability that President Trump will deliver on his promise of tax reform before year-end.
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Weekly Outlook
By David Morrison | 15/12/2017 14:26
Here’s a brief heads-up for the week beginning 18th December
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Central Bank monetary policy meetings
By David Morrison | 14/12/2017 15:48
Here’s a quick rundown of the highlights from this week’s monetary policy meetings from the European Central Bank, Bank of England and US Federal Reserve
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Look-ahead to the Federal Reserve meeting
By David Morrison | 13/12/2017 08:49
Crucially, this week’s Fed meeting also brings an update to the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections.
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Cboe launches Bitcoin futures
By David Morrison | 11/12/2017 16:26
Listing Bitcoin futures on mainstream exchanges should ultimately help to boost the digital currency’s legitimacy and lead to more widespread acceptance.
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Non-Farm Payroll look-ahead: 6 things you should know
By David Morrison | 08/12/2017 09:55
So, here’s what to look for: the consensus expectation is for the headline Non-Farm Payrolls to rise 200,000 in November.
-
EURUSD – key events to consider
By David Morrison | 06/12/2017 17:07
The dollar got a boost this week on the increased likelihood of an agreement on US tax reform being reached before the year-end.
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