EUR/USD's struggles to make headway ahead of Fed's Powell

EUR/USD is back to flat as the North American session heads into the late afternoon trading. EUR/USD fell from a high of 1.0394 to a low of 1.0325 on  |  29/11/2022 18:13
  • EUR/USD bulls are being pushed back in a switch on Wall Street.
  • Eyes will be on the Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell. 

EUR/USD is back to flat as the North American session heads into the late afternoon trading. EUR/USD fell from a high of 1.0394 to a low of 1.0325 on the day so far and sits near 1.0340 at the time of writing. Growth stocks on Wall Street have extended declines, overshadowing a rise in energy shares after oil prices pared back gains on OPEC+ output concerns, overall weighing on riskier currencies as the US Dollar rebounds. 

The euro was initially buoyed earlier on Tuesday due to the hopes of a potential easing in China's strict pandemic restrictions following an unprecedented episode of unrest in the country. Consequently, DXY fell 0.4% to 106.19. Nevertheless, two economic indicators sauntered through the door on Tuesday, missing expectations, and potentially weighing on risk sentiment. 

The Conference Board's (CB) index shaved off 2 points to come in at 100.2, a hair above the 100 consensus. Additionally, the S&P DJI Case-Shiller home price data showed monthly declines across the board in its 20-city composite. Year-over-year, the composite added 10.4%, vs. August's 13.1% reading. Eyes will now be on the November employment report in Nonfarm Payrolls which is expected on Friday.

Fed's Powell coming up

Meanwhile, flash euro zone inflation figures for November are due on Wednesday, with economists polled by Reuters expecting inflation to come in at 10.4% year-on-year. The key event, however, for Wednesday will be in the comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. These will be scrutinised for new signals on further tightening. The Fed is widely expected to hike rates by an additional 50 basis points when it meets on Dec. 13-14. WIRP suggests that is fully priced in, with around 15% odds of a larger 75 bp move. The swaps market is still pricing in a peak policy rate of 5.0%, with small odds of a 5.25% peak.

However,  St Louis Fed CEO James Bullard said the Fed has “a ways to go to get to” restrictive policy, adding that the first 250 bp of tightening was just enough to get to neutral. He added that the Fed needs to move further into a restrictive territory and may need to keep rates higher through 2023 and 2024. Additionally, Bullard stressed that markets are underpricing the risks that the Fed may be more aggressive.  

''Bullard and the hawks have been right the whole time,'' analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman said.  ''We think the less hawkish ones at the Fed are pushing back a bit now but will likely be forced to capitulate once again if inflation remains sticky, as we expect.''

 

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