The 2 big things to watch next week

GKFX Team  |  February / 2. Week
It’s been a quiet week for markets with the only real data coming on Thursday and Friday as the UK and US finally saw some data on the docket. It was however a busy week in Asia with the RBA, and RBNZ rate decisions as well as some headline figures from China that smashed through expectations.

The coming week will see a little more in the way of economic data, but yet again it will be the things that we don’t know that will cause the biggest stir in the markets. President Trump has yet again been at the forefront of any market moving story in the last 7 days, and with him still looking to use his twitter account as a way to vent his school girl like responses to things he doesn’t agree with, we have to keep one close eye on Twitter, and not just because its share price tumbled after poor earnings this week.

Here are the 2 things we should look out for this week in the markets.

1. Gold prices

To talk about Gold as a safe haven is not the done thing anymore, don’t ask me why but it’s true. This is even though it is clearly still a safe haven in the market. Last week saw huge volatility on the precious metal as we continued the strong move higher to hit highs of $1244.

The move in gold coincides with a real uncertain picture in the US due to the new administration in the white house. We have seen the US dollar unable to sustain any upside, while equity markets across the board are just as uncertain. With this sort of environment for me its very clear to see that Gold prices are most certainly a safe haven for traders. Meaning that whenever other asset classes become hard to trade or overly uncertain, the money floods directly into Gold. Fashionable or not, it’s still happening, and with another uncertain week to come we can expect more of the same.

2. French Election

Although the French Election voting doesn’t start until April 23rd the jostling for position at the head of the race has started in earnest, as has the smear campaigns and self-implosion tactics that politicians around the world always manage to do so well.

This is gathering the most attention in the headlines with a potential BREXIT scenario occurring 'FREXIT', but has yet to gain enough traction to start heavily influencing markets. (As we get closer polls will start to influence market moves).

Who's running for President?

The three main people fighting it out are Fillon, Macron and Le Pen. Out of these 3, it was predicted that on the final round, it would be Fillon v Le Pen. Up until recently Fillon was nailed on to be president, but due to his recent scandal he is has been pushed back from pole position, with this scandal the ground of the election potentially shifts to Macron v Le Pen.

The main reason for this is that there is still a large percentage of the French public who are undecided, so in theory those who are undecided or change their vote away from Fillon, will vote for Macron. Le Pen is going for very much a similar style as Trump, in that she is promising a lot of far reaching goals e.g. leaving the 'SM', immigration control and leaving the EU entirely.

This will not be as simple as it has been with Trump, as with French politics (very much like in the UK) Le Pen would need a majority in parliament (that she will not get). Which means she will have to create a coalition with another party and introduce a prime minister from the opposing party who essentially has a lot more power than she does as president.
 

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