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Weekly View
David Morrison | 04/02/2019 10:00
Friday brought the latest update on US Non-Farm Payrolls. There was a particularly strong headline gain of 304,000 – well above the 165,000 anticipated, even considering sharp downward revisions to previous releases. Average hourly earnings came in lower than expected, suggesting that despite good employment numbers, wage growth inflation isn’t a worry for now. Later that day, there was a blow-out ISM Manufacturing PMI which showed, in contrast to Europe and China, that the US manufacturing sector remains buoyant. Given the strength of last week’s US data, there’s a danger that the markets will misprice the likelihood that the Fed won’t tighten again this year. This chart shows rate hike probability from today through to December 2019.
This week is a little less hectic than the one just passed. China’s markets are closed for the New Year/Spring Festival. On the economic calendar on Tuesday we have the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate decision along with US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. The Bank of England’s Official Bank Rate and quarterly Inflation report is out on Thursday and the fourth quarter earnings season continues with results from Alphabet after tonight’s close.
From technical point of view the Euro/USD appears to be consolidating around 1.1450 after failing to hold above 1.1500 last week. Bulls will be looking for reasons to have another go this week although a retreat to intermediate support around 1.1400 can’t be ruled out. Gold is seeing some profit-taking after surging above $1,320 last week. But technically the overall picture looks constructive, particularly if it can hold and consolidate around $1,300.
We wish everyone a happy Chinese new year, and hope you have a profitable trading week
Other Weekly Views
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Is The Worst Over For EURUSD ?
David Morrison
Last week saw the release of yet more dismal economic data from Euro zone.
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Federal Reserve and Non-Farm Payrolls in focus
David Morrison
Busy week ahead
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Chinese growth slows
David Morrison
China’s GDP growth continues to slow while there’s no breakthrough on trade talks with the US. Investors look ahead to monetary policy meetings from the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank
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Sterling steady ahead of vote
David Morrison
Sterling has managed to hold on to last week's gains ahead of Tuesday's key Brexit vote. Meanwhile, gold is back in favour with investors
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Powell responds to market volatility
David Morrison
US/China trade talks, strong payrolls and dovish comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell lifts equities and US Treasury yields while dollar slips
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Dollar strong as 2019 gets underway
David Morrison
The first trading day of the New Year has seen the US dollar soar and equities decline. Meanwhile, gold seems to be back in favour with investors
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Key Week Kicks Off
David Morrison
The US Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday and is expected to raise its Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points
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Brexit Vote; Is it End or Just the Beginning ?
David Morrison
After five days of intense debate, on Tuesday the UK Parliament will vote on the withdrawal bill negotiated between the United Kingdom and the European Union.
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Busy Week Ahead
David Morrison
On Saturday we heard that the US and China had managed to reach a tentative agreement over trade. As a result, President Trump has said that tariffs on Chinese imports to the US will stay at 10% for the next 90 days instead of being raised to 25% on January 1st as previously threatened
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Fed Speaks Markets React
David Morrison
European and US equities were sharply higher early Monday. Investors were cheered by an apparent thaw in EU-Italian relations, a recovery in oil and hopes of a US/China trade breakthrough
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Stock indices bounce back
David Morrison
European and US equities were sharply higher early Monday. Investors were cheered by an apparent thaw in EU-Italian relations, a recovery in oil and hopes of a US/China trade breakthrough
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Trump administration will struggle to push through further tax reductions
David Morrison
Early last week the dollar came under selling pressure as traders expressed their uncertainty ahead of the US midterm elections. It continued to weaken after the Republicans increased their majority in the Senate, but lost control of the House of Representatives.
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US dollar lost ground as November began
David Morrison
After a dismal performance in October, last week saw gobal equity markets rally sharply into the month-end.
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Economic Calendar
David Morrison
On Wednesday the Bank of Japan kept its key interest rate unchanged at minus 10 basis points and its target for 10-year JGBs unchanged at zero. The Nikkei closed 2% higher while the yen was pretty much unchanged in the session.
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ECB Takes Centre Stage
David Morrison
The US dollar continues to be in demand as investors look for safe-havens amid the carnage in global equity markets.
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