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Weekly View
David Morrison | 30/01/2019 06:55
Sterling continues to recover after it hit a 20-month low against the dollar at the beginning of the year. Cable briefly broke above 1.3200 this morning and is up around 5% since the New Year, despite continued Brexit uncertainty. Tuesday sees another major UK Parliamentary vote as Prime Minister Theresa May tries again to drum up support for her meaningful vote on the Withdrawal Bill.
On Friday President Trump was accused of caving to pressure from the Democrats when he brought a halt to the US government shutdown without obtaining funding for his Mexican wall. However, Mr Trump has warned that another partial shutdown is an option should Congress fail to reach a deal on funding a border wall.
The record 35-day shutdown has meant that we’ve missed some important US economic data releases including Durable Goods, Retail Sales, Housing numbers, Business and wholesale inventories. We were supposed to get the first look at US fourth quarter GDP this week, but that is expected to be delayed. However, Friday will see the release of Non-Farm Payrolls and the ISM Manufacturing PMI which fell so sharply just one month ago.
Wednesday sees the Fed’s first monetary policy meeting of 2019. While it is certain that there won’t be any changes to rates this time round, analysts will be pouring over the statement and will also pay close attention to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s subsequent press conference. Market participants are hoping to hear the Fed’s thinking on its balance sheet reduction programme.
Aside from this, on Monday we have speeches from Mario Draghi and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney while US-China trade talks will take place in Washington between Wednesday and Friday.
Have a good week!
Other Weekly Views
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Sterling steady ahead of vote
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Sterling has managed to hold on to last week's gains ahead of Tuesday's key Brexit vote. Meanwhile, gold is back in favour with investors
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Dollar strong as 2019 gets underway
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The first trading day of the New Year has seen the US dollar soar and equities decline. Meanwhile, gold seems to be back in favour with investors
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Key Week Kicks Off
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The US Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday and is expected to raise its Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points
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Brexit Vote; Is it End or Just the Beginning ?
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After five days of intense debate, on Tuesday the UK Parliament will vote on the withdrawal bill negotiated between the United Kingdom and the European Union.
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Busy Week Ahead
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On Saturday we heard that the US and China had managed to reach a tentative agreement over trade. As a result, President Trump has said that tariffs on Chinese imports to the US will stay at 10% for the next 90 days instead of being raised to 25% on January 1st as previously threatened
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Fed Speaks Markets React
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European and US equities were sharply higher early Monday. Investors were cheered by an apparent thaw in EU-Italian relations, a recovery in oil and hopes of a US/China trade breakthrough
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Stock indices bounce back
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European and US equities were sharply higher early Monday. Investors were cheered by an apparent thaw in EU-Italian relations, a recovery in oil and hopes of a US/China trade breakthrough
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Trump administration will struggle to push through further tax reductions
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Early last week the dollar came under selling pressure as traders expressed their uncertainty ahead of the US midterm elections. It continued to weaken after the Republicans increased their majority in the Senate, but lost control of the House of Representatives.
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US dollar lost ground as November began
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After a dismal performance in October, last week saw gobal equity markets rally sharply into the month-end.
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Economic Calendar
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On Wednesday the Bank of Japan kept its key interest rate unchanged at minus 10 basis points and its target for 10-year JGBs unchanged at zero. The Nikkei closed 2% higher while the yen was pretty much unchanged in the session.
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ECB Takes Centre Stage
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The US dollar continues to be in demand as investors look for safe-havens amid the carnage in global equity markets.
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