The Santa Rally

SERHAN ERTEM  |  December / 4. Week

The Santa rally was most definitely not here last week as post FOMC the markets fell sharply with oil and the commodity rout having a big effect on the markets. Friday saw heavy falls for equity markets in the US, so with a lack of data today for traders to get their teeth into and the low volume due the Christmas period things didn’t look to bright. However this morning has seen markets rebound somewhat after a tough week with European stocks feeling the festive cheer and posting some gains on the board. This morning’s small amount of data was more looked at as to not derail a nice start to the week rather than to kick start anything, and the German PPI reading came in bang in line with expectations. It will now be a case of keeping an eye on this afternoons Eurozone consumer confidence reading to make sure we continue to the positive theme.

A Santa Rally will depend on the commodity prices this week. Volume will be light so traders will have to keep an eye on oil as many start to take profits and come out of positions as we approach the end of the year. The Oil price is still trading around the $35 level, and nobody would be surprised to see prices fall lower into the next couple of weeks, of course any negativity will be met by falls in the mining and oil stocks which will have a heavy weighting on the main indices. Gold is another area where we may well see some action this week and we have done this morning. As risk appetite pulls away yet again the precious metal will act like its normal safe haven, and with so much emphasis on the US dollar the Gold pairing will see the main buck of volume. Overall be prepared for the low volume and moves in commodities to dominate the week, but remember that with low volume comes the pickup in volatility, Santa maybe just around the corner but don’t rule out the commodity rout stealing the limelight yet again.

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