ITV Live Debate: Rolling headlines on Brexit

Live from Salford in Greater Manchester, Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn go head to head in their first TV debate. The UK leaders will set out how the  |  19/11/2019 20:17
  • Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn go head to head in their first TV debate - rolling headlines.
  • GBP firms from the lows in outc ome of the section of the debate devoted to Brexit.
  • The debate is not swaying in favour of Corbyn or Johnson one way or the other so far - Polls were mixed.

Live from Salford in Greater Manchester, Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn go head to head in their first TV debate. The UK leaders will set out how they would break the political deadlock and heal a divided nation. The debate is being moderated by Julie Etchingham. This particular debate was a section devoted to Brexit.

Live rolling quotes from Labour leader Corbyn and Tory party leader Johnson:

Corbyn:

  • Corbyn claims Johnson's UK-US trade deal would take seven years to negotiate.
  • Corbyn says he would negotiate a new deal, and have a referendum, with a credible leave option.
  • He says it is “nonsense” to suggest that Johnson would sort out Brexit by January.
  • He says it would take Johnson seven years to negotiate a trade deal with the US. And the US trade deal would be incompatible with a trade deal with the EU.
  • In answr to Johnson asking if Corbyn wants to do a deal, and he asks if he will campaign for his own deal, Corbyn says the following:*
  • Corbyn says he wants to bring people together;
  • Corbyn repeats the point about a trade deal with the US taking seven years;
  • And he claims Corbyn has already indicated this deal would put the NHS at risk;
  • Etchingham says Corbyn ducked the question about whether he would campaign for remain or leave.
  • Question from the Audience: Is the union worth sacrificing for Brexit? Corbyn says he hopes the union does not break up. But Johnson’s deal gives Northern Ireland a different status. There are issues there, he says. This deal is damaging to this country.
  • Johnson told the DUP conference he would not allow a border down the Irish Sea – But his deal does involve this.
  • Rules out a coalition between labour party ‘and anyone else’ - no deals have been done with SNP.
  • Trust has to be earned.
  • As an elected representative, you have to listen to people.
  • Corbyn has spent a lot of time listening to people, from chief executives to the homeless. 
  • Corbyn's style is to listen to people and to bring people together.

Additional comments and analysis (fact-checking):

Claim: Courtesy of the guardian, "Jeremy Corbyn claimed that it will take “at least seven years” to negotiate a trade deal between the UK and the US...

Reality: The EU took seven years to negotiate and ratify its deal with Canada, not the US. On average it takes 48 months to do a trade deal. It is highly unlikely that a US deal will be struck until the UK strikes a new deal with the EU. The UK only has 11 months to negotiate a deal with the EU, starting 1 February. The current deadline for a trade deal with the EU is 31 December but many expect the transition period during which negotiations will take place to be extended by one or two years.

Johnson:

  • The entire conservative party supports Brexit deal.
  • UK will leave the EU on 31st Jan 2020.
  • Conservative party can get Brexit deal passed ‘in next few weeks’.
  • Johnson says he wants a mandate to govern. But Corbyn wants to strike a new deal, he says.
  • He asks if Corbyn wants to do a deal, and he asks if he will campaign for his own deal (see what Corbyn said above).*
  • NHS will never be for sale. 
  • Johnson says the union is the most important thing.
  • Johnson says preserving the union is more important than Brexit.
  • Question form the audience: Will you stick to your pledge to get the trade deal done by the end of next year? Answer: “Absolutely." (Johnson blags about getting a deal when people said he couldn't).
  • Most of Corbyn’s shadow cabinet has spoken against Corbyn’s deal.
  • Addressing the questioner who asked, Q: How can we trust you? Johnson says that is an important question.
  • The problem was that parliament repeatedly blocked Brexit, he says. He says the way to restore trust is to get Brexit done.
  • Johnson claims he is a politician who delivers on his promises.
  • Look at what I said I would do as a politician, and look at what I have delivered. ( - Despite he missed the “do or die” pledge to deliver Brexit by 31 October).
  • Question: Does the truth matter in this election? Answer: I think it does. 

Additional comments and analysis (fact-checking):

Claim: Richard Partington of the guardian explained that  Boris Johnson claims voting in a Labour government would mean two referendums next year, one on the EU, one on Scottish independence.

Reality: Richard Partington explained that,

Labour’s policy is to renegotiate a Brexit deal with the EU and then put it to UK voters in a second referendum within six months. Corbyn did not say which way Labour would campaign. Should Labour fail to win a majority next month, it could need the support of minority parties to form a government, including the SNP. Nicola Sturgeon has said she wants an independence referendum before 2021. However, Corbyn has said he would not allow a vote in the “early years” of a Labour government. He also says no deals have been struck with the SNP.

What's the verdict so far?

Neither seems to be leading the debate with the audience laughing at them both. UK public confidence is at an all-time low with their political leaders. Major polls have the Tory party in the lead which has been of benefits to GBP considering the deal that a majority of Johnson's party are backing. 

  • UPDATE:

A snap ITV Twitter poll, in fact, put Corbyn in the lead by a huge percentage as follows (29,665 votes):

  • 78% Jermy Corbyn won.
  • 22% said Johnson won.

YouGov / Sky News snap chat Poll: Who performed best:

  • Johnson 51%
  • Corbyn 49%
  • Excluding don’t knows
  • Just over 1,600 respondents

FX implications:

  • GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Cable firming after challenging the 1.2910 level

With respect to the pound, considering the lack of liquidity, there could be some movement depending on what is said and how much of the debate is related to Brexit. This was a Brexit section of the debate and should be of the most important for GBP traders.

However, as analysts at TD Securities explained, "Leaders' debates are rarely decisive events, but in such an unpredictable general election, we'll be watching extra closely for any potential turning points." GBP/USD had ben as high as 1.2970 on the day but has given back some ground to the lowest point in the lead into the event down to 1.2910, likely on profit-taking – GBP/JPY is down to test the 200-hour moving average, (Yen is a safe haven and GBP/JPY can be a big mover).

 

 

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